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Market Consensus
-
Market consensus is the average of analysts' estimates for the upcoming quarterly results
-
The consensus figures comprise estimates and forecasts of 9 analysts
Q2 2024
EBITDA
USD mn (excluding special items)
|
Market Consensus
|
---|---|
Upstream
|
280.0 |
Downstream
|
331.0 |
Clean CCS based DS
|
330.6 |
Consumer Services
|
190.5 |
Gas Midstream
|
57.4 |
Circular Economy Services | 11.2 |
Corporate & Other
|
(48.2) |
Intersegment
|
(17.9) |
TOTAL EBITDA
|
804.0 |
Clean CCS EBITDA
|
792.4 |
EBIT
USD mn (excluding special items)
|
Market Consensus
|
---|---|
TOTAL EBIT
|
528.8 |
Clean CCS EBIT
|
508.8 |
Financials
USD mn (reported figures)
|
Market Consensus
|
---|---|
Total financial expense/(gain) net
|
(24.9) |
Income from associates
|
8.8 |
Profit before tax
|
511.0 |
Income Tax expense
|
(74.0) |
Non-controlling interest
|
(15.7) |
Profit for the period (to equity)
|
369.2 |
Disclaimer
The purpose of the published consensus figures is to provide more detailed information for our shareholders and is not intended to constitute investment advise. The consensus is based on estimates and forecasts for MOL Plc from various analysts, who are independent from the Company. The Company gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness. Reference to assessments serves only for reader information and is non-binding. The publication of consensus figures does not imply that the Company subscribes to these opinions or conclusions in any form whatsoever, or that the Company supports or confirms them. The Company accepts no liability for the selection, current relevance, completeness or correctness of the analysts’ assessments reproduced here.
Macro Figures
VARIABLE REFINERY MARGINS
-
based on weighted Solomon refinery yields
-
relevant international product and crude (Ural) quotations
-
contains cost of purchased energy, and CO2
-
monthly publication on MOL’s IR site
MOL GROUP PETROCHEMICALS MARGIN
-
The MOL Group petrochemicals margin is a variable margin based upon the product yields of MOL Petrochemicals and Slovnaft Petrochemicals.
-
As of January 2018 an updated formula for calculating the „MOL Group petrochemicals margin” was introduced, replacing the previous „Integrated petrochemical margin”. The purpose of the new formula is to better reflect the petchem product slate of the group.
The formula is the following:
8.3% ethylene + 16.0% LDPE + 25.5% HDPE + 37.3% PP + 5.3% butadiene + 7.6% benzene – 117.5% naphtha – 12.0 % propylene
2022
Macro figures* | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr* | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 87.2 | 98.2 | 118.8 | |||||||||
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 1.3 | 5.4 | 34.9 | |||||||||
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated** | (1.1) | 3.4 | 33.7 | |||||||||
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 1.7 | 6.0 | 36.0 | |||||||||
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated** | (0.3) | 4.3 | 35.1 | |||||||||
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 563.5 | 463.0 | 436.5 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 101.4 | ||||
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 13.8 | ||||
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated** | 12.0 | ||||
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 14.5 | ||||
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated** | 13.1 | ||||
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 487.7 |
* In light of recent market developments the refinery margin is less representative of actual results. The MOL Group refinery margin methodology is under review, accordingly the margin publication was suspended.
** Updated methodology includes purchased energy (enhanced fit to natural gas) and CO2 costs
.
2021
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 54.8 | 62.2 | 65.6 | 64.7 | 68.8 | 73.0 | 75.0 | 70.8 | 74.6 | 83.7 | 81.4 | 74.1 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated* | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 4.6 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 506.7 | 624.9 | 873.7 | 1035.8 | 1003.5 | 807.8 | 670.1 | 681.1 | 639.0 | 540.3 | 605.8 | 649.4 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 60.9 | 68.8 | 73.5 | 79.7 | 70.7 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 2.5 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated* | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) original | 2.9 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) updated* | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 668.5 | 949.1 | 663.4 | 598.5 | 719.9 |
*Updated methodology includes purchased energy (enhanced fit to natural gas) and CO2 costs
2020
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 63.5 | 55.4 | 31.8 | 18.5 | 29.0 | 40.1 | 43.4 | 44.8 | 40.8 | 40.2 | 42.7 | 49.9 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 4.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 0.4 | (1.3) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 5.6 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 0.7 | (1.0) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 269.0 | 335.5 | 546.5 | 577.4 | 402.2 | 312.5 | 314.3 | 337.5 | 357.5 | 340.9 | 386.8 | 431.8 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 50.3 | 29.2 | 43.0 | 44.2 | 41.7 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 383.7 | 430.7 | 336.5 | 386.5 | 384.3 |
2019
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 59.5 | 64.0 | 66.1 | 71.3 | 71.1 | 64.1 | 64.0 | 59.0 | 62.8 | 59.7 | 63.0 | 67.0 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 2.9 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 457.2 | 400.8 | 387.5 | 388.2 | 414.7 | 462.7 | 371.7 | 401.7 | 336.6 | 326.3 | 264.6 | 250.9 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 63.2 | 68.8 | 61.9 | 63.3 | 64.3 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.8 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 415.2 | 421.8 | 370.0 | 280.6 | 371.9 |
2018
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 69,2 | 65.2 | 65.9 | 71.8 | 76.9 | 74.3 | 74.3 | 72.6 | 78.9 | 81.2 | 64.7 | 57.4 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 4,2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 5.0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 407.8 | 471.0 | 435.5 | 384.3 | 318.0 | 401.4 | 389.2 | 366.6 | 331.1 | 330.9 | 477.9 | 478.5 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 422.0 | 494.3 | 451.6 | 395.9 | 325.1 | 406.2 | 393.7 | 376.5 | 337.3 | 338.9 | 501.6 | 522.1 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 66.8 | 74.4 | 75.3 | 67.8 | 71.0 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 438.1 | 367.8 | 362.3 | 429.1 | 399.2 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 456.0 | 375.6 | 369.2 | 454.2 | 413.8 |
2017
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 54.7 | 55.1 | 51.6 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 51.6 | 56.0 | 57.4 | 62.6 | 64.2 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.7 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 5.1 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 451.6 | 529.4 | 630.4 | 592.9 | 601.6 | 563.9 | 494.7 | 467.4 | 467.2 | 466.5 | 385.7 | 394.5 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 483.1 | 523.8 | 610.9 | 582.8 | 601.2 | 567.6 | 511.6 | 490.6 | 493.0 | 484.2 | 399.7 | 400.8 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 53.8 | 49.8 | 52.1 | 61.4 | 54.3 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.5 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 6.5 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 7.1 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 537.1 | 586.1 | 476.5 | 415.6 | 503.8 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 539.3 | 583.8 | 498.4 | 428.2 | 512.4 |
2016
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 30,7 | 32.5 | 38,5 | 41.5 | 46.9 | 48.3 | 45.1 | 45.8 | 46.7 | 49.7 | 45.1 | 53.6 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 7,1 | 5.0 | 5,2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 5.4 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 7,6 | 5.4 | 5,8 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7,7 | 7.7 | 5.9 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 665.5 | 602.4 | 556.6 | 608.9 | 577.9 | 530.9 | 519.4 | 545.3 | 535.2 | 466.1 | 483.9 | 428.5 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 761.8 | 692.7 | 650.4 | 702.6 | 662.3 | 605.2 | 578.1 | 599.0 | 593.4 | 514.4 | 528.2 | 471.4 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 33.9 | 45.6 | 45.8 | 49.5 | 43.7 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 5.8 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.7 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 6.3 |
NEW MOL Group petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) | 608.2 | 572.6 | 533.3 | 459.5 | 543.4 |
OLD Integrated petrochemical margin (EUR/t) | 701.6 | 656.7 | 590.2 | 504.6 | 613.3 |
2015
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 47.9 | 58.1 | 55.9 | 59.8 | 64.3 | 61.7 | 56.5 | 46.6 | 47.6 | 48.6 | 44.3 | 38.2 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.1 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 7.1 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 542.7 | 441.3 | 547.9 | 692.5 | 780.0 | 808.5 | 798.5 | 774.3 | 668.7 | 642.6 | 695.3 | 763.5 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 54.0 | 61.9 | 50.3 | 43.7 | 52.5 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 7.3 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 510.6 | 760.3 | 747.2 | 700.5 | 679.7 |
2014
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 108.3 | 108.9 | 107.6 | 107.6 | 109.6 | 111.7 | 106.6 | 101.6 | 97.3 | 87.4 | 78.9 | 62.5 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 1,8 | 2.0 | 1,6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 2,9 | 3,3 | 2,8 | 5,2 | 3,2 | 3,6 | 5,5 | 5,3 | 6,8 | 5,6 | 5,9 | 5.0 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 314.6 | 281.5 | 300.7 | 293.3 | 289.5 | 290.3 | 322.5 | 356.8 | 317.9 | 446.1 | 498.5 | 598.4 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 108.3 | 109.6 | 101.8 | 76.3 | 98.9 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 1.8 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 299.0 | 291.1 | 332.4 | 514.3 | 359.2 |
2013
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 113.0 | 116.2 | 108.4 | 101.9 | 102.4 | 102.9 | 108.0 | 111.3 | 111.9 | 109.1 | 108.0 | 110.8 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 2.4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 329.9 | 246.2 | 291.3 | 320.5 | 285.1 | 333.5 | 292.1 | 309.5 | 305.9 | 285.8 | 259.4 | 274.1 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 112.5 | 102.4 | 110.4 | 109.3 | 108.7 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 5.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 289.1 | 313.0 | 302.5 | 273.1 | 294.4 |
2012
Macro figures | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 110.6 | 119.6 | 125.3 | 119.5 | 110.2 | 94.8 | 102.6 | 113.4 | 112.9 | 111.6 | 109.1 | 109.4 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.0 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 4.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 98.3 | 178.0 | 230.0 | 274.2 | 303.8 | 258.3 | 180.2 | 230.5 | 325.2 | 275.8 | 229.2 | 293.0 |
Macro figures | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent dated (USD/bbl) | 118.5 | 108.2 | 109.6 | 110.0 | 111.6 |
MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 2.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
MOL + Slovnaft refinery margin (USD/bbl) | 3.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
MOL Integrated Petchem Margin (EUR/t) | 168.8 | 278.8 | 245.3 | 266.0 | 239.7 |
Investor Presentations
2018
2015
ESG
Sustainability Report
MOL Group’s Sustainability Report is integrated into MOL Group’s Annual Report. Narrative and data presented in the Sustainability Report is restricted to material topics, important developments, as well as any significant changes in performance.
ESG Data
All ESG data has been integrated into the groupwide Data Library. This includes multi-year disclosure of around 650 individual ESG data points covering almost 100 indicators across seven areas: Climate Change, Environment, Health & Safety, Human Capital, Communities, Ethics-Security-Economic, and Corporate Governance.