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MOL Group

Annual Financial Report

2025

 

 

 

 

MOL HUNGARIAN OIL AND GAS PLC.

CONSOLIDATED management discussion and analysis and business report (Sustainability Statement)

31 December 2025

Budapest, 18 March 2026

 

Zsolt HERNÁDI		Ákos SZÉKELY Dr.
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer,		Group Chief Financial Officer
Chairman of the Board of Directors

 

 

 

 

     I.          MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF 2025 BUSINESS OPERATIONS

 

Overview of the macroeconomic and industry environment

Macroeconomic environment

Global output growth was surprisingly steady in 2025 despite U.S.-led trade disruptions and increasing geopolitical tensions. However, the 3.3% growth rate remained well below the historical average of 3.8%^[1] and was reliant on a narrow range of drivers, notably strong demand for AI-related investment in some countries, particularly the U.S. Without a broad-based recovery in the manufacturing sector the frontloading of exports ahead of the introduction of new tariff rates provided only a temporary boost to GDP growth. After growth of 2.8% in 2024, the U.S. economy expanded by 2.1% in 2025, gaining the most from the AI-led investment ramp-up as consumption softened and interest rates remained elevated during the year. The economic damage caused by tariff rates and frequent policy changes has been smaller than expected at the beginning of the year, yet longer-term household inflation expectations remain above the central bank target. While 2025 has seen a general weakening in the U.S. dollar, it remained relatively stable in relation to the Chinese yuan. While Chinese GDP met the government target of 5%, retail sales and investment continued to worsen with economic growth becoming increasingly reliant on exports over domestic demand. In nominal terms, unadjusted for price changes, the growth rate has been significantly lower, given persistent deflation.

In 2025, real GDP growth in the euro area reached 1.5%, up from 0.9% in 2024, while the EU as a whole expanded by 1.6%, compared to 1.0% the previous year. The euro area has been benefitting from easing inflation, declining interest rates and targeted fiscal measures. Germany remained “the sick man of Europe”, just avoiding recession (0.2% growth), France’s debt problem escalated, while Spain and the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region outperformed the rest of the bloc. Strategic focus in Europe shifted from climate goals to security and competitiveness and resulted in delaying and softening some green regulations. Trade and security relations between the U.S. and EU cooled over the year, with an increasing gap between attitudes toward NATO, and the war in Ukraine.

The CEE region recorded moderate expansion in 2025, with average real GDP growth of around 2.5 %, surpassing euro‑area dynamics. Momentum was underpinned by resilient domestic demand, bolstered by ongoing near‑shoring and continued wage convergence, though growth was constrained by subdued external markets and cautious business sentiment. Poland and Croatia continued to outperform others, while the German economy’s weakness weighed on the performance of Hungary and Slovakia. Inflation remained close to but above central bank targets, with persistent services inflation.

The Hungarian economy disappointed once again in 2025. Real GDP growth expectations continuously declined during the year, ending at 0.3%. Output was weighed down by weak investment and sluggish external demand, though private consumption provided a stabilizing base as wage growth and targeted fiscal measures supported household spending. Inflation eased significantly, averaging 4.4% for the year, mainly because if the consistently restrictive monetary policy.^[2] The interest rate premium was a major reason behind the 7% appreciation of the forint relative to the euro.

Oil and natural gas market developments

Crude oil market dynamics in 2025 were shaped by persistent oversupply, subdued demand and episodic geopolitical shocks. Benchmark Brent traded at the lowest annual level since COVID, averaging 69.1 USD/bbl (down from 80.8 USD/bbl in 2024), and oscillating between 83.1 USD/bbl in January and 60.2 USD/bbl in December.^[3] Global crude oil inventories reached 3.2 billion bbl by the end of the year, 14% above pre-pandemic levels. Non‑OPEC+ producers led supply growth, particularly the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil, while U.S. crude output alone reached a record 13.9 Mmbpd in October. OPEC+ responded with modest production increases to gain back market share, gradually unwinding voluntary cuts mid-year^[4]. On the demand front, China surprised with record annual crude imports of 11.6 Mmbpd, bolstered by strategic and commercial stockpiling, which provided some price support. Nevertheless, global oil demand remained restrained amid slower economic growth and trade tensions. Geopolitical flare‑ups – including the Israel‑Iran conflict and sporadic Houthi attacks disrupting Red Sea shipping – and escalating sanctions against Russia injected volatility. As a consequence of sanctions, the discount on Urals versus Brent widened significantly in the last two months of the year. Overall, abundant non‑OPEC+ supply, cautious OPEC+ easing and uncertain demand kept prices in a downward trajectory, defining a challenging crude environment for 2025.

 

Figure 1: Selected crude, natural gas and coal prices dtd (USD/MWh, 2023-2025, Bloomberg data)

 

 

European natural gas prices were on a downward trajectory throughout the year, with the Dutch TTF (Title Transfer Facility) falling from 58.4 EUR/MWh in February to 26.6 EUR/MWh by the end of the year. Still, on average TTF prices were 35.4 EUR/Mwh last year, slightly above the 34.6 EUR/Mwh average of 2024. 2025 witnessed major transformations in the European natural gas market as transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ended from 1 January leading to a further ~40% year-on-year drop in Russian pipeline flows and leaving TurkStream the only remaining route to import Russian gas via pipeline. Diversification of supply resulted in a shift towards more LNG imports: Europe became the biggest LNG importer of the world, with U.S. shipments almost doubling and supplying around 25% of total European imports by the end of the year.^[5] Facing depleted storage levels at the end of the 2024/2025 heating season led to the relaxation of EU filling targets. While the 90% storage filling obligation has been extended by two years, until the end of 2027, member states are now allowed to meet the target between October 1st and December 1st, the need to maintain that level until December was also removed, and deviations were permitted during difficult market conditions. Despite reduced speculative buying, structurally lower demand and the LNG surge, the European gas market balance remained fragile, leaving the EU increasingly vulnerable to global supply and weather shocks.

Downstream

European refineries continue to struggle due to the combination of continued diversification away from Russian import, falling domestic fuel demand, high operating costs, strict EU climate regulations, import competition from newer mega refineries and logistical issues like low river levels affecting inland supply chains. Five refineries have closed in the past two years. In 2025, crude processing ended in Grangemouth (UK), Wesseling (Germany) and Livorno (Italy). A number of refineries, among them Gelsenkirchen (Germany) have seen significant reductions in capacity. In contrast, outside Europe the world has added more than 2.5 Mmbpd crude distillation capacity since 2024, mainly in China, India, the Middle East, Mexico and for the first time in decades, in Africa too, squeezing European gasoline export markets significantly. Still, structurally lower European crude runs, extended sanctions and heightened concerns over tightening regional product supply kept European refining margins unexpectedly firm in 2025. European gasoil crack spreads were particularly strong again, boosted by repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and export facilities as well as a number of unplanned refinery outages and a heavy year-end maintenance season.

The European chemicals industry has faced the third year of economic recession after energy prices became structurally higher and global petrochemical capacity additions in China, India, and Middle East led to a chemical market overcapacity amid weakening demand. Moreover, most chemicals exported from the European Union into the U.S., the sector’s biggest export market, will be subject to a 15% tariff, rising from 1% on average before the deal. Domestic demand recovery also continues to be sluggish, the automotive market is particularly struggling. Also, the post-Covid shift in household spending from (durable) products towards services continues to drag down petrochemical consumption. European commodity and base chemicals, in the beginning of the petrochemical value chain are hit most by the increased production costs, low domestic demand, squeezed export market shares and increased import pressure. As no marked shift was seen in EU level industrial policy or economic fundamentals, numerous chemical companies have started to shift production from commodity to specialty chemicals and/or away from Europe.

 

Macro figures (average)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Brent dated (USD/bbl)	69.1	80.8	(14)
Urals-Brent spread (USD/bbl, DAP India Urals quotation) (11)	(3.0)	(3.6)	(17)
TTF gas price (EUR/MWh)	35.4	34.6	2
Premium unleaded gasoline 10 ppm (USD/t) (12)	703.7	789.0	(11)
Gas oil – ULSD 10 ppm (USD/t) (12)	683.9	748.4	(9)
Naphtha (USD/t) (13)	535.9	622.3	(14)
Fuel oil 3.5 (USD/t) (13)	398.0	444.1	(10)
Crack spread – premium unleaded (USD/t) (12)	180.9	178.1	2
Crack spread – gas oil (USD/t) (12)	161.1	137.5	17
Crack spread – naphtha (USD/t) (12)	13.1	11.3	16
Crack spread – fuel oil 3.5 (USD/t) (12)	(124.7)	(166.8)	(25)
Crack spread – premium unleaded (USD/bbl) (12)	15.4	14.0	10
Crack spread – gas oil (USD/bbl) (12)	22.7	19.7	15
Crack spread – naphtha (USD/bbl) (13)	(8.9)	(10.8)	(18)
Crack spread – fuel oil 3.5 (USD/bbl) (13)	(6.2)	(10.6)	(42)
Brent-based MOL Group refinery margin (USD/bbl) (14)	7.6	6.1	25
Brent-based Complex refinery margin (MOL + Slovnaft) (USD/bbl) (14)	8.0	6.4	25
Ethylene (EUR/t)	1,161	1,217	(5)
Butadiene-naphtha spread (EUR/t)	425	384	11
MOL Group Variable petrochemicals margin (EUR/t) (15)	173	200	(14)
HUF/USD average	353.2	365.2	(3)
HUF/EUR average	397.9	395.2	1
O/N USD SOFR (%)	4.2	5.1	(18)
3m EURIBOR (%)	2.2	3.6	(39)
3m BUBOR (%)	6.5	7.3	(11)
Macro figures (closing)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Brent dated closing (USD/bbl)	62.6	74.6	(16)
HUF/USD closing	328.4	393.6	(17)
HUF/EUR closing	385.4	410.1	(6)
MOL share price closing (HUF)	2,940	2,730	7

 

Notes and special items are listed in Appendix I and II.

Historical macro figures are available in the annual Data Library on the company’s website.

Integrated Corporate Risk Management

As an operator in a high-risk industry MOL Group is committed to manage and maintain its risks within acceptable limits.

The aim of MOL Group Risk Management is to keep the risks of the business within acceptable levels and safeguard the resilience of its operations as well as the sustainable management of the company. For this purpose, as an integral part of our corporate governance structure, MOL Group has developed a comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) system which focuses on the organisation’s value creation process, meaning factors critical to the success and threats related to the achievement of objectives but also occurrence of risk events causing potential impact to people, assets, environment or reputation. Within the ERM framework all significant risks throughout the whole Group are identified, assessed, evaluated, treated and monitored, covering all business and functional units, geographies as well as projects, taking into consideration multiple time horizons.

Regular risk reporting to top management bodies, including the Board of Directors with its committees provides oversight on overall the risk profile and the largest risks as well as assurance that updated responses, controls, and appropriate mitigation actions are set and followed. 

The Group faces financial, operational and strategic risks, including but not limited to the below.

Risks/processes	Risk description	Risk mitigation methods
Market and financial risks
Commodity price risk	The Group is exposed to commodity price risk on both the purchasing side and the sales side. The main commodity risks stem from its long positions in crude oil, refinery margin and petrochemical margin.	·   Integrated business model ·   Continuous monitoring  ·   When necessary, commodity hedging instruments to mitigate other than ‘business as usual’ risks or general market price volatility
Foreign exchange (FX) risk	The Group has FX exposure due to mismatch of currency composition of cash inflows and outflows, investments, debts.	·   Monitoring FX risk and balancing the FX exposures of the operating & investment cash flow with the financing cash flow exposures when necessary and optimal
Interest rate (IR) risk	MOL Group has a mixture of floating and fixed interest rate debts. Floating rate debt are subject to interest rate changes.	·   Continuous monitoring  ·   Adequate mix of funding portfolio ·   When necessary, interest rate swap hedging instruments to mitigate risks
Credit risk	MOL Group provides products and services with deferred payment terms to eligible customers which exposes it to credit risk.	·   Diversified customer portfolio ·   Customer evaluation model, continuous monitoring  ·   Group-wide credit insurance program
Financing/Refinancing risk	MOL Group has significant debt outstanding. Inability to refinance those or inability to draw down funds could cause liquidity problems.	·   Diversified funding sources/instruments ·   Diversified, balanced, and decently long maturity profile ·   Investment grade rating (BBB-) supports smooth capital markets access

 

Risks/processes	Risk description	Risk mitigation methods
Operational Risks
Physical asset and process safety and equipment breakdown risk	Process Safety Event (Major Industrial accident) due to loss of mechanical integrity, technical, technological or operational issues, process maintenance difficulties, lack of competent human resources.	·    Comprehensive HSE activities, a group-wide Process Safety Management system including asset related operational risk management process ·    Lifetime Extension program continued in petchem and rolled out to refineries ·    Preventive & Predictive maintenance (Uptime program) with thorough equipment criticality assessment behind ·    Group-wide insurance management program
Crude oil and gas supply risk	Crude supply disruption (insufficient quantity or quality) can disrupt refineries and petchem sites continuous operation.	·      Crude oil-supply diversification strategy implemented;  ·      Emergency reserves available
Critical material, equipment or service supply risk	Disruption in critical (raw) materials and/or equipment and/or services may cause delays in operation and/or increase costs	·      Stock management ·      Supplier management ·      Sourcing and supply chain diversification
Exploration & Production reserve replacement	Higher than expected decline and failure to replace reserves.	·      Production optimization programs and organic reserve replacement activities are both focus areas of Exploration & Production operations
Cyber risk	Global trends showing steadily growing frequency and intensity of Cyber-attacks / incidents. AI is a new global threat which is widely used by attackers as well as more specified Cyber Crime Groups targeting Industrial Control System’s weaknesses, which may have increasing economic impact and relevance on MOL Group.	·      Continuous improvement of cyber security capabilities ·      Continuous supervision of cyber security risks (Group and OpCo level) ensuring the protection of the confidentiality, integrity and availability of data ·      Cyber security is built into all the MOL Group products and services ·      Continuous education of employees and partners.
Fraud Risk	Fraudulent activities (external & internal fraud) may cause significant financial and reputational losses	·      Control functions on local and group level ·      Anti-Fraud Awareness (Newsletter, Mandatory trainings) ·      Anti-Fraud & Investigation procedures, dedicated Team
Pandemic Risk	Pandemics may significantly adversely affect the Group’s business environment, including price and demand on the Group’s products and services, availability of contractors, subcontractors as well as raw materials, creditworthiness of credit customers, availability of the Group’s key personnel.	·   Crisis Management plans in place  ·   Our Group Pandemic Preparedness Framework methodology instruction was issued in January 2023, reapproved in January 2025, summarizing not only the WHO general approach but entire MOL Group internal experiences of previous 3-4 years, ensuring a life-proof and working framework to manage any possible further endemic/ pandemic situations. ·   Continued and sustainable practices defined, adjusted to country local measures and company internal circumstances

Risks/processes	Risk description	Risk mitigation methods
Strategic risks
Regulatory and sanctions risk	MOL has significant exposure to a wide range of laws, regulations and policies on the global, the European and the individual country level, that may change significantly over time and may even require the Group to adjust its core business operation.	·   Continuous monitoring of new regulations and sanctions ·   Strengthened compliance process ·   Participation in legislative processes, consultations, proactive advocacy along MOL interests ·   Adapting MOL strategy in response to changes
Country risk	The international presence of MOL Group contributes to diversification but also exposure to country specific risk at the same time. Government actions may be affected by the elevated risk of economic and, in some regions, (geo)political crisis, increasing their impact on MOL’s operations.	·   Continuous monitoring of the (geo)political risk, compliance with local regulations and international sanctions ·   Investment opportunities are evaluated with quantifying of country risk in discount rate
Reputation risk	MOL, as a major market player and employer in the region with a sizeable operational footprint, operates under special attention from a considerable number of external stakeholders.	·   Stakeholder governance processes introduced to monitor and adjust to any reputational risks
Climate change risk	Transition and physical risks associated with climate change have the potential to negatively impact MOL’s current and future revenue streams, expenditures, assets and financing.	·   MOL Group’s strategy is underpinned by the energy transition ·   Several operational steps taken to mitigate physical risks emanating from climate change (Sustainability Report)
Capex Project Execution Risk	Projects are delayed or less profitable than expected or unsuccessful for numerous reasons, including cost overruns, higher raw material or energy prices, longer lead time in equipment deliveries, limited availability of contractors and execution difficulties.	·   Disciplined stage gate process across Capex project pipeline ·   Dedicated team to identify risks at earlier stages, plan for mitigation or avoidance by linking potential risks with schedule and budget to build realistic estimates and following it up through the project lifecycle ·   Supplier selection criteria, audits
Human Capital Risk	The Group's ability to implement its Shape Tomorrow Strategy is dependent on the capabilities and performance of its people, management, experts and technical personnel.  Unavailability of skilled workforce may lead to disruptions in the operation.	·   HR framework to attract, develop and engage employees ·   Capability development for all employee levels to ensure future-proof skillset ·   Intergenerational collaboration to enhance internal knowledge transfer ·   Focus on digital transformation, and employee experience ·   Developing diverse & collaborative culture ·   Working environment and conditions framework in order to attract and retain diverse talents

ESG risks are covered and considered as part of the following topics (including but not limited to): Climate Change, Human Capital, Physical asset and process safety and equipment breakdown risk, Cyber Risk, Fraud Risk, Pandemic Risk, Regulatory and sanctions risk.

Financial and operational overview of 2025

 

HUF billion USD million (3) Summary of results FY 2025 FY 2024 Ch % FY 2025 FY 2024 Ch % Net sales revenues (6) 8,696.3 9,178.7 (5) 24,700 25,127 (2) EBITDA 1,077.8 1,091.3 (1) 3,048 2,992 2 EBITDA excl. special items (1) 1,077.8 1,091.3 (1) 3,048 2,992 2 Clean CCS-based EBITDA (1) (2) 1,185.8 1,121.7 6 3,369 3,073 10 Profit from operation 436.5 584.9 (25) 1,204 1,615 (25) Profit from operation excl. special items (1) 517.3 603.8 (14) 1,450 1,663 (13) Clean CCS-based operating profit (1) (2) 625.3 634.2 (1) 1,771 1,744 2 Net financial gain / (expenses) 22.4 (66.9) n.a. 63 (181) n.a. Net profit attributable to equity holders of the parent 298.1 368.2 (19) 810 1,023 (21) Operating cash flow before ch. in working capital 922.7 914.6 1 2,623 2,488 5 Operating cash flow 976.8 820.5 19 2,798 2,218 26 EARNINGS PER SHARE             Basic EPS, HUF 398.1 496.2 (20) 1.08 1.38 (22) INDEBTEDNESS Simplified Net debt/EBITDA 0.47 0.74 n.a. Net gearing (4) 10.0% 14.9% n.a.

KEY FINANCIAL DATA BY BUSINESS SEGMENTS

	HUF billion			USD million (3)
Net Sales Revenues (6)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	658.5	685.4	(4)	1,865	1,871	0
Downstream	6,984.5	7,155.1	(2)	19,820	19,578	1
Gas Midstream	115.8	127.3	(9)	327	348	(6)
Consumer Services (9)	3,445.7	3,741.2	(8)	9,812	10,240	(4)
Circular Economy Services	448.5	428.6	5	1,277	1,182	8
Corporate and other	440.0	436.4	1	1,267	1,187	7
Total Net Sales Revenues	12,093.0	12,573.9	(4)	34,368	34,406	0
Intersegment transfers(7)	(3,396.7)	(3,395.2)	0	(9,668)	(9,279)	4
Total external net sales revenues from cont.op.	8,696.3	9,178.7	(5)	24,700	25,127	(2)
Total external net sales revenues from discont.op.	0.0	0.0	n.a.	0	0	n.a.
Total External Net Sales Revenues (6)	8,696.3	9,178.7	(5)	24,700	25,127	(2)
EBITDA	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	398.7	402.1	(1)	1,125	1,099	2
Downstream	394.6	427.4	(8)	1,116	1,171	(5)
Gas Midstream	73.8	89.0	(17)	208	244	(15)
Consumer Services (9)	324.2	271.0	20	927	743	25
Circular Economy Services	(11.3)	(20.3)	(44)	(34)	(52)	(34)
Corporate and other	(119.0)	(68.0)	75	(339)	(185)	83
Intersegment transfers (7)	16.8	(9.9)	n.a.	45	(29)	n.a.
Total EBITDA from cont.op.	1,077.8	1,091.3	(1)	3,048	2,992	2
Total EBITDA from discont.op.	0.0	(40.7)	(100)	0	(111)	(100)
Total EBITDA	1,077.8	1,050.6	3	3,048	2,881	6

 

	HUF billion			USD million (3)
Depreciation	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	215.7	170.3	27	625	462	35
Downstream	217.0	180.3	20	619	491	26
Gas Midstream	17.0	16.6	3	49	46	7
Consumer Services (9)	123.1	77.3	59	357	210	69
Circular Economy Services	17.6	13.1	34	50.4	35.9	40
Corporate and other	51.9	50.2	3	148	137	8
Intersegment transfers(7)	(1.2)	(1.4)	(14)	(3)	(5)	(40)
Total Depreciation from cont.op.	641.3	506.4	27	1,844	1,377	34
Total Depreciation from discont.op.	0.0	0.0	n.a.	0	0	n.a.
Total Depreciation	641.3	506.4	27	1,844	1,377	34
Operating Profit	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	183.0	231.8	(21)	500	638	(22)
Downstream	177.6	247.0	(28)	497	681	(27)
Gas Midstream	56.8	72.4	(22)	159	199	(20)
Consumer Services (9)	201.0	193.8	4	571	532	7
Circular Economy Services	(29.0)	(33.4)	(13)	(85)	(88)	(3)
Corporate and other	(170.9)	(118.3)	45	(487)	(323)	51
Intersegment transfers (7)	17.9	(8.5)	n.a.	49	(24)	n.a.
Total operating profit cont.op.	436.5	584.9	(25)	1,204	1,615	(25)
Total operating profit discont.op.	0.0	(40.7)	(100)	0	(111)	(100)
Total Operating Profit	436.5	544.2	(20)	1,204	1,504	(20)
EBITDA Excluding Special Items (1)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	398.7	402.1	(1)	1,125	1,099	2
Downstream	394.6	427.4	(8)	1,116	1,171	(5)
Downstream - clean CCS-based (2)	508.4	463.4	10	1,453	1,267	15
Gas Midstream	73.8	89.0	(17)	208	244	(15)
Consumer Services (9)	324.2	271.0	20	927	743	25
Circular Economy Services	(11.3)	(20.3)	(44)	(34)	(52)	(34)
Corporate and other	(119.0)	(68.0)	75	(339)	(185)	83
Intersegment transfers (7)	16.8	(9.9)	n.a.	45	(29)	n.a.
Total Clean CCS-based EBITDA (2)	1,185.8	1,121.7	6	3,369	3,073	10
Total EBITDA excluding special items cont.op.	1,077.8	1,091.3	(1)	3,048	2,992	2
TOTAL EBITDA excluding special items discont.op.	0.0	(40.7)	(100)	0	(111)	(100)
Total EBITDA excluding Special Items	1,077.8	1,050.6	3	3,048	2,881	6

 

	HUF billion			USD million (3)
Operating Profit Excluding Special Items (1)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	229.6	250.8	(8)	642	686	(6)
Downstream	177.6	247.0	(28)	497	681	(27)
Gas Midstream	56.8	72.4	(22)	159	199	(20)
Consumer Services (9)	235.2	193.8	21	675	532	27
Circular Economy Services	(29.0)	(33.4)	(13)	(85)	(88)	(3)
Corporate and other	(170.9)	(118.3)	45	(487)	(323)	51
Intersegment transfers (7)	17.9	(8.5)	n.a.	49	(24)	n.a.
Total operating profit excluding special items cont.op.	517.3	603.8	(14)	1,450	1,663	(13)
Total operating profit excluding special items discont.op.	0.0	(40.7)	(100)	0	(111)	(100)
Total Operating Profit Excluding Special Items	517.3	563.1	(8)	1,450	1,552	(7)
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Upstream	144.9	115.8	25	416	316	32
Downstream	244.0	316.0	(23)	715	860	(17)
Gas Midstream	17.8	17.8	0	52	47	11
Consumer Services (9)	41.7	62.8	(34)	122	169	(28)
Circular Economy Services	37.3	34.1	9	109	93	17
Corporate and other	93.8	85.9	9	278	227	22
Intersegment transfers(7)	(2.1)	(2.4)	(13)	(6)	(7)	(14)
Total Capital Expenditures	577.3	630.0	(8)	1,686	1,705	(1)

 

Notes and special items are listed in Appendix I and II.

3.1 Key achievements and summary of 2025 results

In 2025 MOL reached Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 1,185.8 bn (USD 3,369 mn), marking an increase of 6% in HUF terms year-on-year and also above the guidance of around USD 3 bn reflecting management expectations. Results were supported by refining margins rising by 1.6 USD/bbl on average, an increase in upstream production and a continued organic rise in the profitability of the Consumer Services business segment, while the oil price environment and deterioration in the petrochemicals environment weighed on results, as well as the drop in crude processing capacity utilization in the final months of the year as a result of a fire in the Danube refinery.  

Key Financial Highlights

►     In the Upstream segment, EBITDA reached HUF 398.7 bn (USD 1,125 mn) in 2025, marking a 1% decrease compared to 2024 in HUF terms as production volumes increased by 1% while the price of Brent fell by 14% and TTF natural gas quotations were 2% higher on average in EUR terms.

►     In 2025, Downstream Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 508.4 bn (USD 1,453 mn) translated to a 10% year-on-year growth in HUF terms, supported by higher refining margins in a volatile environment. The petrochemicals business continued to contribute negatively to results, and so did the fire at one of the distillation units that led to up to 50% of the crude distillation capacity of the Danube refinery was unutilized in the last two months of the year.

►     EBITDA of Consumer Services increased by 20% in HUF terms in 2025, reaching HUF 324.2 bn (USD 927 mn) as a result of organic growth driven by non-fuel sales and one-off effects.

►     Gas Midstream achieved HUF 73.8 bn (USD 208 mn) EBITDA in 2025, representing a decrease of 15% in HUF terms compared to 2024, as a result of a combination of robust demand for transmission activities, changes in regulated tariffs and macroeconomic drivers.

►     Circular Economy Services reported EBITDA of HUF -11.3 bn (USD -34 mn) as the Deposit Refund Scheme was ramped up during the year that led to extra operational expenses; still, the negative EBITDA result was 44% lower in HUF terms than in 2024 thanks to efforts to enhance operational efficiency showing first results.

►     Operating cash flow grew by 19% in HUF terms and amounted to HUF 976.8bn (USD 2,798 mn), supported by a release of working capital amounting to HUF 54.1 bn (USD 175 mn).

►     Capital expenditures reached HUF 577.3 bn (USD 1,687 mn) in 2025, 1% lower than in 2024 as a result of less turnarounds in Downstream, partly compensated for lower spending on acquisitions and higher spending on key ongoing projects like the Rijeka refinery upgrade.

►     Reflecting the high cash flow generation for the Group, net Debt/EBITDA, the Group’s key metrics for indebtedness, decreased to 0.49x by end-2025, well below the management guidance threshold of 1.0x.

Key Operational Highlights

►     Oil and gas production increased to 94.7 mboepd in 2025, above the annual guidance of 92-94 mboepd thanks to continued excellence in the operation of Hungarian assets and a ramp-up in Kazakhstan and KRI-based production. Partnerships were struck with the oil&gas incumbents in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

►     The Consumer Services network closed the year with 2,311 stations, down from 2,330 stations from 2024. The rollout of the non-fuel brand “Fresh Corner” as a standalone retail concept started during the year.

►     In Downstream, the Rijeka refinery upgrade progressed to near completion by the end of the year and crude diversification projects also progressed according to plan. An efficiency-enhancing project Tomorrow Downstream was launched with the goal to reach USD 1.4 bn mid-cycle EBITDA beyond 2027.

►     In line with MOL’s strategic ambitions to expand in the renewables space, a share-purchase agreement was signed to acquire a 304 MWp photovoltaic portfolio in Hungary, which quadruples MOL’s current solar capacity.

►     On an extraordinary general meeting on 27 November 2025, shareholders approved that the Group’s legal structure is to change to a holding structure.

 

3.2 Corporate Strategy

In alignment with the Paris climate objectives and the strategic direction set by the European Union, MOL Group outlined its transformation pathway to 2030 in the 2024 update of its Shape Tomorrow strategy. The strategy reflects the expectations of key stakeholders while acknowledging the specific realities of the oil and gas sector and the Central and Eastern European region. MOL describes its approach as a “smart transition,” emphasizing the need to identify the most effective avenues for advancing the energy transition while maintaining a strong focus on economic value creation.

Shape Tomorrow strategy

MOL Group’s updated Shape Tomorrow strategy sets out a transition pathway through 2030 and committing to a long‑term ambition of achieving net climate neutrality by 2050. This trajectory is supported by the relatively robust economic outlook of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and MOL’s intention to preserve or strengthen its position in its markets—factors that together provide the financial and space needed to execute its transition program.

The strategy introduced more ambitious climate targets: MOL aims to reduce its Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 25% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels. While acknowledging that Scope 3 emissions are largely driven by regional fossil‑fuel demand and therefore less directly controllable, the company has nonetheless committed to a 5% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030.

Delivering this decarbonization goal will require significant capital investment and a shift beyond its traditional oil and gas competencies. Between 2025 and 2030, approximately 30-40% of MOL’s CAPEX budget will be directed toward low‑carbon initiatives. In line with the smart transition approach, MOL remains conservative in its financial planning: it expects average annual organic investments of around USD 1.9 billion in real terms over 2025-2030 – just slightly above the USD 1.8 billion average recorded between 2018 and 2023. This approach enables the company to maintain a strong balance sheet while preserving flexibility for potential inorganic growth opportunities and competitive shareholder returns.

Segments contribution to the strategy

With the bulk of the Group’s emissions generated by the Downstream segment, the highest climate impact can be achieved by the decarbonization of this segment. In line with the strategic directions, MOL has taken the important steps to expand in biofuels, green hydrogen, biogas, and waste utilization to advance its transition agenda. The inauguration of the a green hydrogen plant in Hungary in 2024, the largest in the CEE region, was a clear step in this direction as well as the continued expansion in the photovoltaic portfolio operated by the Group. However, the Downstream strategy also emphasizes the need to safeguard the region’s supply security, and both the ongoing crude‑diversification efforts and the Rijeka refinery upgrade are expected to strengthen resilience on that front.

Circular Economy Services is the newest business segment of the Group, started in 2023 and driven by with the start of the waste management concession in Hungary. A key milestone was the rollout of the Deposit Refund System, which scaled up throughout 2024 and reached over 88% return rate over 2025, over several benchmarks in EU countries with a more established refund scheme. Circular Economy Services is expected to become a key enabler of synergies with Downstream operations by supplying the volume and quality of feedstocks required for MOL’s circularity ambitions to materialize.

MOL’s Consumer Services segment continues its evolution into a digitally-driven retailer and integrated mobility provider. The focus is on developing multi-purpose service stations, enhancing customer-centric operations, and becoming a regional leader in mobility solutions.

The Upstream segment continues to serve as a vital cash engine for MOL Group, with simplified free cash flow expected to average around 20 dollars per barrel of oil equivalent throughout the strategic horizon. In the CEE region, MOL will concentrate on optimizing production, upgrading infrastructure, and improving hydrocarbon recovery to sustain output and bolster regional energy security. At the same time, the company is advancing a portfolio of low‑carbon technologies, including lithium extraction, methane‑emission reduction, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Further to that, geothermal energy is a direction that already started to be executed with exploratory drilling started in Lescan, Croatia in 2025.

3.2.1.  Scenario Analysis

The Shape Tomorrow Strategy update, published in March 2024, is based on a detailed analysis of the external environment, exploring the main trends and directions of general macroeconomic conditions, the oil and gas industry, and ancillary markets that have – or potentially have – a large impact on MOL’s operation. Based on the analyses of these markets, MOL prepares numeric forecasts of the key macroeconomic and industry-specific parameters. 

The forecasts were prepared for three scenarios: Slow Transition, Steady Transition & Net Zero Emission. The green energy transition is happening in all three scenarios, the biggest difference between them is the pace of the transition. The Shape Tomorrow Strategy is predominantly based on the Steady Transition scenario. If one of the other two scenarios would materialise, it would mostly affect the timing of the investments envisaged in the Shape Tomorrow Strategy and not the strategic directions themselves.

During 2025, the changes in the geopolitical realities prompted an update to the scenarios set of the Shape Tomorrow strategy. The update includes scenarios that differ not only in the speed of transition, but also on the degree of geopolitical tensions and thus distinguishes between 1-block, 2-block, and multi-block worlds. In a 1-block world scenario, governments to re-commit to global cooperation in tackling emissions and other environmental threats resulting in a relatively swift green energy transition. The 2-block world scenario assumes that a bipolar global order emerges, with the U.S. and China competing across infrastructural, digital, production, and finance networks. A multi-block world foresees that national individualism, sovereignty, and protectionism dominate politics and economic policy. The green energy transition is the slowest in this latter scenario mostly due to more scattered global economy not only slowing down overall economic growth but also hindering the trade of sustainable technologies and the critical raw materials necessary for their manufacturing.

In 2025 in its annual exercise of assessing the progress on MOL’s strategy, the Board of Directors discussed if the Shape Tomorrow strategy needs a review in light of the changed scenarios. While the change in the scenarios was supported by the Board, it noted that the implications with regards to the strategy is similar and thus decided to maintain the Shape Tomorrow strategy.

MOL operates a “Premises Committee” made up from representatives of the main business divisions and functional areas. The committee is tasked with monitoring the main indicators and assumptions used in the different scenarios and carrying out updates following changes to the external environment. This system can provide early notice that the external environment is moving to a different stage along the chosen scenario path, or potentially moving towards a different scenario altogether, providing senior management the opportunity to reassess and adjust its plans accordingly. Changes to the premises – partially or fully – automatically triggers a notification to the Executive Management and the Board of Directors, and as a result it may cause a modification of the strategy. Any changes to the strategy would need approval from the Board of Directors.

3.3 Upstream

Segment IFRS results (HUF bn)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
EBITDA	398.7	402.2	(1)
EBITDA excl. spec. Items (1)	398.7	402.2	(1)
Operating profit/(loss)	183.0	231.9	(21)
Operating profit/(loss) excl. spec. Items (1)	229.6	250.9	(8)
CAPEX and investments	144.9	113.2	28
o/w exploration CAPEX	15.9	17.0	(6)
Hydrocarbon Production (mboepd)	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Crude oil production (8)	41.0	39.8	3
Hungary	12.5	11.5	9
Croatia	8.8	9.3	(5)
Kurdistan Region of Iraq	4.1	4.0	2
Pakistan	0.6	0.5	20
Azerbaijan	13.4	12.7	6
Other International	1.5	1.7	(12)
Natural gas production	35.4	37.0	(4)
Hungary	21.8	21.6	1
Croatia	10.3	11.3	(9)
o/w. Croatia offshore	2.3	2.8	(18)
Pakistan	3.1	3.9	(21)
Other International	0.2	0.2	0
Condensate (5)	3.8	4.2	(10)
Hungary	2.7	2.7	0
Croatia	0.6	0.7	(14)
Pakistan	0.6	0.8	(25)
Average hydrocarbon production of fully consolidated companies	80.3	81.0	(1)
Russia (Baitex)	3.3	3.5	(6)
Kazakhstan	4.2	2.7	56
Hungary	0.4	0.4	0
Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Pearl Petroleum)	6.6	6.3	5
Average hydrocarbon production of joint ventures and associated companies	14.5	12.9	12
Group level average hydrocarbon production	94.7	93.8	1
Main external macro factors	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Brent dated (USD/bbl)	69.1	80.8	(14)
TTF gas price (USD/boe)	69.2	63.7	9
Average realized hydrocarbon price	FY 2025	FY 2024	Ch %
Average realized crude oil and condensate price (USD/bbl)	61.0	71.6	(15)
Average realised gas price (USD/boe)	65.5	51.4	27
Total hydrocarbon price (USD/boe)	62.8	63.2	(1)